Exceptional multi-year prediction skill of the Kuroshio Extension in the high-resolution CESM decadal prediction system
The Kuroshio Extension (KE) has far-reaching influences on climate as well as on local marine ecosystems. Thus, skillful multi-year to decadal prediction of the KE state and understanding sources of skill are valuable. Retrospective forecasts using the high-resolution CESM show exceptional skill in predicting KE variability up to lead year 4, substantially higher than the skill found in a similarly configured low-resolution CESM. The higher skill is attained because the high-resolution system can more realistically simulate the westward Rossby wave propagation of initialized ocean anomalies in the central North Pacific and their expression within the sharp KE front, and does not suffer from spurious variability near Japan present in the low-resolution CESM that interferes with the incoming wave propagation. These results argue for the use of high-resolution models for future studies that aim to predict changes in western boundary current systems and associated biological fields.
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- Temporal Range
- 1983 to 2017
- Temporal Resolution
- 1.0 month
1.0 year
- Spatial Resolution
- 0.1 degree
1.0 degree
- Related Links
- N/A
- GCMD Science Keywords
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UCAR/NCAR - Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory
whokim@ucar.edu
UCAR/NCAR - GDEX
gdex@ucar.edu
- Credit
- This study was supported by the Department of Commerce through the Climate Variability and Predictability of NOAA OAR's Climate Program Office under award NA20OAR4310408 and the computing resources for HRDP were provided by the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) under award ATM20005.
- Legal Constraints
- Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
- Access Constraints
- None
- Full Metadata DIF XML
ISO19139 XML
OAI DC
JSON-LD
- Version History
- 1.0
- Latitude Range
- 20.0° N to 55.0° N
- Longitude Range
- 130.0° E to 120.0° W
- Authors
- Who Kim
Stephen Yeager
Gokhan Danabsoglu
Ping Chang
- Suggested Citation
- Downloads
- 377
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- 1.33 GB Total